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What Is Confirmation Bias?

Imagine you’re debating whether dogs or cats make better pets. You head to Google and type: Do dogs make better pets than cats? Instantly, you get a list of articles confirming all the reasons dogs are superior. But what if you had searched Do cats make better pets than dogs? You’d see an entirely different set of results—this time, supporting why cats are the better choice. (Watch the video below to see the different search results.)

Same search engine, two completely different answers. The difference? The way you framed the question. This is confirmation bias in action—the tendency to seek out, interpret, and remember information that supports what we already believe while ignoring or downplaying contradictory evidence.

This bias isn’t just a quirk of how we use search engines; it has serious implications for business, leadership, and everyday decision-making. Let’s explore how it works, why it’s so dangerous, and how to fight back.

The Hidden Danger of Confirmation Bias in Decision-Making

Confirmation bias creates a dangerous echo chamber. It reinforces existing beliefs, making us feel more certain—even when we’re wrong. Here’s how it plays out in real-world scenarios:

1. Business Decisions Gone Wrong

A leadership team is excited about launching a new product. They look for data supporting its success—customer interest, industry trends, positive market projections. But they fail to investigate the failures: similar products that flopped, unexpected market shifts, or negative feedback that contradicts their enthusiasm. By ignoring those red flags, they set themselves up for a costly misstep.

2. The Hiring Trap

A hiring manager is impressed by a candidate’s charisma in an interview. They unconsciously focus on evidence that supports their first impression—glowing references, a polished resume—while dismissing red flags like inconsistent job history or past negative feedback. The result? A hiring mistake that could have been avoided with a more balanced evaluation.

3. Investment Blind Spots

An investor is bullish on a stock and seeks out only positive analyst reports while disregarding warnings of financial instability. They double down, confident in their decision—until the stock crashes, and they’re left wondering what went wrong.

These examples illustrate how confirmation bias narrows our perspective, making us blind to risks and alternative viewpoints. The good news? There are ways to fight back.

How to Overcome Confirmation Bias and Make Smarter Decisions

Awareness is the first step, but actively countering confirmation bias requires structured techniques. Here are five strategies to help you make more objective decisions:

1. Use Red Teaming

Assign someone (or a team) to challenge your decision. Their job is to poke holes in the reasoning, find weaknesses, and present counterarguments. By formally assigning a “red team,” you create a structured, safe environment for critical feedback. Often, people hesitate to surface risks because they don’t want to appear negative or contrarian. A red team role legitimizes their concerns, ensuring that potential pitfalls are explored without fear of backlash. This is a common strategy in military planning and high-stakes corporate decision-making, forcing leaders to confront blind spots.

2. Flip the Question

Instead of asking Why is this a good idea? try Why might this fail? or What evidence would prove me wrong? This simple shift helps break the cycle of self-reinforcing beliefs and encourages a broader perspective. Think back to the dogs versus cats example—by intentionally searching both Why are dogs better than cats? and Why are cats better than dogs? we explore both angles, reducing bias and giving ourselves a more complete picture.

3. Seek Disconfirming Evidence

Actively look for data that contradicts your assumptions. If you believe a new initiative will succeed, search for examples of similar initiatives that failed and analyze why. Ask yourself: What would change my mind about this?

4. Consider Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios

Before making a decision, analyze both the upside and the potential risks. Many organizations overestimate benefits while underestimating risks. Historical data can help ground these assessments in reality rather than wishful thinking.

5. Encourage a Culture of Debate

More importantly, leaders should cultivate a culture where debate is not just accepted but encouraged. Many employees hesitate to challenge prevailing opinions for fear of being labeled as negative or disruptive. By making it explicitly safe—and even routine—for people to voice contrarian views, leaders ensure that teams evaluate decisions from multiple angles, leading to stronger and more resilient choices.

Breaking Free from the Confirmation Bias Trap

Confirmation bias isn’t just an intellectual flaw—it’s a fundamental human tendency that affects how we see the world. But by actively challenging our assumptions, seeking opposing evidence, and structuring our decision-making processes to counteract bias, we can make smarter, more informed choices.

Before making your next big decision, ask yourself: Am I seeing the full picture, or just what I want to see?

Further Learning

If you enjoyed the video, check out this playlist on our YouTube Channel where we cover other Decision Traps. While you’re there, subscribe to the channel.

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If you’re serious about mitigating decision traps in your organization, check out 📖 The Hidden Traps Sabotaging Your Decisions – A practical guide to recognizing and avoiding common decision biases.

Chris Seifert is the author of Enabling Empowerment: A Leadership Playbook for Ending Micromanagement and Empowering Decision-Makers. With over two decades of experience in transforming organizations through strategic leadership and decision-making frameworks, Chris has helped teams cut through bottlenecks, optimize capital project budgets, and build cultures of accountability. He is passionate about teaching leaders how to empower their teams to make smarter, faster decisions without sacrificing business value.